Abstract: Emergency medical services have a pivotal role in giving timely and appropriate responses to emergency events caused by medical, natural, or human-caused disasters. This study aimed to estimate the annual volume of hospital emergency visits and the corresponding demand for ambulance services in Jakarta. Survey data were combined with national statistics and hospital emergency department sample data to estimate four key parameters: daytime and nighttime population per area, annual per capita hospital emergency visits, probability of an emergency taking place in each period, and the rate of ambulance need per area. Monte Carlo simulation and traditional averaging methods generated estimates. The total annual ambulance need in Jakarta was estimated to be between 83,000 and 241,000. Assuming an ambulance usage rate of 9.3%, the total annual hospital emergency visits in Jakarta was estimated to be around 0.9 to 2.6 million. Simulation-based estimates were statistically different from naive averaging estimates (P<.001).
@article{brice2024closeup,
title = {Close-Up on Ambulance Service Estimation in {Indonesia}: {Monte
Carlo} Simulation Study},
author = {Brice, Syaribah Noor and Boutilier, Justin and Harper, Paul R.
and Palmer, Geraint I. and Knight, Vincent A. and Tuson, Mark
and Gartner, Daniel},
journal = {Interactive Journal of Medical Research},
volume = {13},
pages = {e54240},
year = {2024},
doi = {10.2196/54240},
}